Brandon Woodruff Continues To Be Brandon Woodruff

I don’t have a lot in the best way of groundbreaking evaluation for you right this moment. I’m right here to jot down about one thing that’s fairly apparent: Brandon Woodruff remains to be awfully good. You in all probability knew that already with out fancy stats or gory math. The Milwaukee right-hander owns a profession 3.08 ERA and three.18 FIP. He has been good at nearly each level since his rookie yr in 2017. Nonetheless, I’d like to deal with just a few of the explanations that his continued success is an enormous deal. So till I get to the half the place I can dazzle you with numbers, I’ll at the least attempt to drop in some enjoyable details right here and there.

Woodruff initially hit the IL with shoulder irritation again in April, after making simply two begins that have been — cease me should you’ve heard this earlier than — superb. His shoulder irritation turned out to be a Grade 2 subscapular pressure. The subscapularis is the biggest muscle in your rotator cuff, and medical doctors can diagnose a subscapular tear utilizing three assessments with glorious names: the lift-off check, the bear hug check, and the stomach press check. Sadly, none of those assessments is sort of as enjoyable because it sounds.

Woodruff missed 4 months (the common gestation interval of an armadillo). Since returning on August 6, he’s made seven begins, working a 2.22 ERA and a 3.54 FIP and averaging 10.07 strikeouts per 9 innings. You possibly can make a powerful argument that he was the most effective pickup any workforce made on the commerce deadline. He’s additionally been working progressively deeper into video games, a development that culminated in his first profession full sport on Monday, when he shut out the Marlins on six hits and one stroll. Listed here are his inning totals from these seven begins in chronological order: 5, 6.1, 5.1, 6, 6, 7, 9.

As Woodruff has pitched solely 9 occasions this yr and 7 occasions since his return, it’s exhausting to make any massive conclusions from his numbers. He’s working a 1.93 ERA with a .189 BABIP that’s the second-lowest amongst all pitchers who’ve thrown at the least 50 innings and an absurd 94.1% strand fee that’s second-highest. That’s clearly not sustainable. He has a 2.75 xERA, 89 DRA-, 3.53 FIP, and three.65 xFIP; the final three numbers are all of the worst since his rookie yr, however they’re nonetheless lots good. The regression monster will come for Woodruff finally, however it gained’t flip him right into a pumpkin. By the way, the phrase ‘pumpkin’ got here to English from the French phrase pompone. Earlier than it acquired the Ok, it was pronounced ‘pumpion,’ which I believe we are able to all agree is fairly enjoyable.

Nonetheless, there are a few indicators that I’m eager about watching. First, Woodruff’s contact high quality metrics have now taken a soar within the improper route in every of the final two seasons:

Over the course of three seasons, his common exit velocity and hard-hit fee have gone from glorious to common to borderline unhealthy. However check out the three columns on the suitable. Regardless of permitting all that further exhausting contact, Woodruff’s barrel fee is about the identical, and each his wOBA and anticipated wOBA are higher than they’ve ever been, even after we focus particularly on hard-hit balls. A few of that is due to the distribution: extra hard-hit grounders and fewer hard-hit fly balls. Some is trickier to elucidate.

This yr, 38% of Woodruff’s fly balls and line drives have been pulled, up greater than 12 share factors from final season. They’ve additionally been hit greater than two miles per hour tougher and traveled greater than 15 toes farther. This must be a recipe for catastrophe, but his xwOBA on these air balls is up solely 61 factors from final season, and his wOBA is definitely down. The reason for this begins with the truth that all of these exit velocity beneficial properties got here on line drives. And right here’s the factor about line drives: they don’t go for homers all that usually, they usually normally fall in for hits anyway.

I don’t know to what extent a pitcher can truly management this, but when I’m Brandon Woodruff, I’m blissful to funnel exhausting contact into line drives and away from fly balls. Why ought to I care in case your surefire double hits the wall 2.3 mph tougher? In distinction, Woodruff’s common exit velocity on fly balls is down barely this season, and his launch angle is approach up, coinciding with a soar in popup fee. He’s working up within the zone extra typically this season, and to date it’s led to rather more manageable contact when batters elevate the ball. There’s in all probability a little bit of luck occurring right here, too, and it may’t harm that Milwaukee’s protection ranks first in OAA and second in DRS.

Woodruff can also be getting extra extension than ever on almost all of his pitches and has dropped his launch level barely. The latter is the continuation of an extended development:

The additional inch or so of extension has saved Woodruff’s perceived velocity precisely the identical because it was final yr at 96.5 mph, despite the fact that his precise velocity has dropped by 0.4 mph. His four-seamer has additionally traded half an inch of run for half an inch of trip, and his breaking pitches are dropping much less as effectively:

As you’ll be able to see, Stuff+ likes this tradeoff for his four-seamer, however not a lot for his breaking stuff. Since vertical motion is normally the important thing to swing-and-miss, it’s not stunning that Woodruff’s whiff fee is up on the four-seamer and down on the breaking balls. Thus far that swap has been value it, and there may be one profit to having much less break in your curve and slider: it’s simpler to throw them for strikes.

Woodruff has drastically elevated the variety of breaking balls he throws within the zone, and all of the referred to as strikes have greater than made up for the whiffs. Nonetheless, throwing these breaking pitches within the zone has additionally led to a spike involved high quality.

In all, Woodruff has traded some walks for some strikeouts and managed an enormous soar involved high quality. I don’t know if he’ll preserve pitching the best way he has been by his first 9 begins, but when he does, in some unspecified time in the future all these further hard-hit balls will seemingly meet up with him to some extent. However once more, if Woodruff simply sees the outcomes his FIP thinks he ought to have, he’ll be working a 3.54 ERA. This yr, solely 29 pitchers have thrown at the least 100 innings with an ERA higher than 3.54. The Brewers would completely take that model of Woodruff down the stretch and into the playoffs.

That brings me to my last level. As Ben Clemens documented again when the postseason schedule got here out, the variety of off-days within the calendar implies that rotational depth is much less vital this yr. Even when the NLDS and NLCS go the total 5 and 7 video games, an NL workforce may get by to the World Sequence with out utilizing its fourth starter greater than as soon as. That’s nice information for a workforce with a dominant high three like Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta. Over every of their most up-to-date begins, that trio has allowed a mixed eight hits and one run. I do know I wouldn’t wish to face these three in October.