Earlier as we speak, the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers made a swap forward of this yr’s 40-man roster deadline, the final day groups should both add eligible minor league gamers to their 40-man roster or expose them to December’s Rule 5 Draft. On this commerce, the Brewers acquired 26-year-old second baseman Oliver Dunn and added him to their 40-man roster, whereas the Phillies obtained two prospects in return, 21-year-old infielder Robert Moore and 20-year-old outfielder Hendry Mendez.
Let’s begin with Milwaukee’s finish of this, as we’re most definitely to see 2024 large league influence from Dunn, who’s coming off an Arizona Fall League stint wherein he gained the league’s Breakout Prospect award. Dunn, whose brother Ross is within the Twins system, was a Yankees 2019 eleventh spherical pick of Utah. He hit .196 popping out of the misplaced 2020 season, and spent a good portion of each 2021 and 2022 on the IL coping with a number of accidents, together with a fractured jaw, an stomach pressure, and a hamstring pressure.
The Phillies drafted him within the minor league part of the 2022 Rule 5 Draft and Dunn had an enormous energy breakout in 2023 at Double-A Studying, the place he hit .271/.396/.506 and slugged 21 homers, greater than he had hit all through his complete profession coming into 2023. Studying is a hitter’s haven and Dunn was in his age-25 season, so there are good causes to be skeptical of his sudden change in output, however his underlying energy metrics additionally took a leap, along with his common and peak exit velocities (92 mph and 112 mph, respectively) cresting above the massive league common. This isn’t gigantic, influence energy, but it surely’s significant pop for a second baseman. Dunn swings and misses fairly a bit, particularly throughout the strike zone (you possibly can see him scuffling with velo up and away from him, a Fall League theme for Dunn, within the video under), however he’s a harmful all-fields hitter due to his energy and skill to catch some fastballs deep within the hitting zone and punish them the opposite manner.
Dunn isn’t an particularly good defensive second baseman, neither is he versatile. He has spent slightly little bit of minor league time at third base (together with 5 AFL video games) and in left discipline, however his lack of mobility and arm power make him a below-average, second base-only defender in my eyes. This lack of versatility is the largest barrier between Dunn and 2024 main league enjoying time. If Willy Adames is traded this offseason and Brice Turang strikes to shortstop, then Dunn matches as a lefty-hitting complement to Owen Miller, Andruw Monasterio and the opposite righty-hitting infielders on Milwaukee’s 40-man. He’s in higher place for reps than Vinny Capra, Jahmai Jones and arguably Miller simply by advantage of his handedness. I’ve him evaluated as an above-replacement participant however not one in all large influence, just like Cavan Biggio with out plate self-discipline fairly pretty much as good.
In return for Dunn, the Phillies acquired two prospects who had “inventory down” seasons in Mendez and Moore. No matter that, it’s proof of fine scouting and course of for an org to flip a minor league Rule 5 decide for a number of prospects in lower than a yr, so this deal is a feather within the cap of the Phillies regardless of these two gamers having had tough 2023 seasons relative to my expectations. Mendez was a 2023 Choose to Click on who didn’t click on. He has been an interesting younger prospect since debuting within the U.S. in 2021 as a 17-year-old with very precocious really feel for contact regardless of a wierd swing path that led to an inordinate variety of groundballs. Although he’s stuffed out and gotten stronger throughout the previous few years, Mendez hasn’t been in a position to actualize any extra energy in video games. His physique and swing appeared stiffer than traditional within the 2023 Fall League. As a corner-only defender, he wants to supply extra in-game energy than he has thus far if he’s going to be a giant leaguer. Thrilling really feel for contact continues to be right here, however Mendez’s swing is so lengthy and bottom-hand pushed that he in all probability wants an overhaul to succeed in opposition to higher stage pitching on this regard. A change of surroundings would possibly allow this, however he’s going to be towards the very backside of the Phillies prospect record along with his expertise as they’re presently constituted.
Moore has been a recognized prospect since his underclass highschool days, and he ended up matriculating to school early with a view to be an especially younger (20.3) junior for his draft yr. The apex of Moore’s inventory got here whereas he was a sophomore at Arkansas, when he appeared like a possible prime 10 or 15 decide for the next yr’s draft. He had a considerable downtick in efficiency as a junior and there was a rumor on the time that he would possibly return to high school to attempt to recoup some draft helium with an age-21 senior season. As an alternative Moore signed with the Brewers for $800,000 as a second rounder. He spent 2023 at Excessive-A Wisconsin, the place he slashed .233/.321/.361. Plus actions and superior defensive acumen are actually his carrying instruments and allow him to undertaking as a viable defender at each center infield positions. The tiny Moore struggles to hit for energy and has some plate protection points from the left aspect, struggling to contact pitches on the outer third. A bounce-back candidate for the final yr and alter, I now see him as having extra of a utility ceiling.
Not solely was Bryson Stott blocking Dunn, however Rodolfo Castro and Kody Clemens every have an analogous profile however with louder instruments. Each Mendez and Moore have 2025 40-man roster timelines, so the staff has two full years to develop them additional earlier than both might be thought-about on deck to contribute in Philly. Dunn’s energy provides him an even bigger ceiling than I’d forecast for both Mendez or Moore, regardless of these two every being at the very least 5 years youthful than Dunn, but when Dunn isn’t going to be an on a regular basis second baseman, he has to turn into a viable defender at at the very least another place to play any form of significant position for Milwaukee.
