Two years in the past, I wrote in regards to the imminent demise of the three,000 Hit Membership after Miguel Cabrera grew to become a member. Merely put, it was a query of math. The more severe the surroundings is for hitting for batting common, the less gamers there might be who will put up lofty profession hit totals. Whereas it will be simple to suppose there are merely extra awful hitters nowadays, as league batting common has dropped in latest a long time, the unfold in particular person batting averages has not elevated; nice gamers see decrease batting averages when league batting averages decline. However whereas 2023’s new guidelines didn’t herald a reversal of the development, one late entrant within the race for 3,000 hits has continued to excel: Freddie Freeman.
What makes the nadir of the three,000 Hit Membership so jarring to a baseball fan is the novelty of this phenomenon. The explosion of offense within the Nineties wasn’t simply homers, however batting common as nicely. Even going again 10 years, there have been at all times lots of gamers with profession hit totals someplace north of two,000.
In 2023, that quantity is seven, and that’s solely as a result of there have been 4 new members this 12 months: Freeman, Jose Altuve, Elvis Andrus, and Andrew McCutchen. (I’m going to exit on a limb and predict that Evan Longoria received’t get 72 hits over the subsequent two weeks.) Distinction that with 2004, which featured 27 lively gamers with 2,000 profession hits.
Gamers with 2,000 Profession Hits (As of 2004)
That brings us again to Freeman. Whereas he was at all times good at hitting for common all through his 20s, his hallmark was his year-to-year consistency moderately than amassing batting titles. Batting common tends to peak moderately early, and Freeman wasn’t on the high of the leaderboards in both hits or batting common over the primary decade of his profession.
Batting Common Leaders, 2010s
As famous above, most gamers see large batting common dips after they cross 30. Even wanting simply at gamers who managed 3,000 hits, their batting averages of their 30s have been about 20 factors decrease than their 20s. Freeman didn’t get the memo, nonetheless; the three finest batting averages of his profession have all come inside the final 4 seasons, regardless of league batting common bottoming out. This 12 months, he’s at .335, arguably a extra spectacular quantity than his .341 within the shortened 2020 season.
To see how a lot progress Freeman has made, I went again and referred to as up his closing projected hits in ZiPS earlier than every season of his profession:
ZiPS Profession Projection – Freddie Freeman
| Yr | Hits |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 1850 |
| 2011 | 2116 |
| 2012 | 2299 |
| 2013 | 2238 |
| 2014 | 2434 |
| 2015 | 2532 |
| 2016 | 2238 |
| 2017 | 2407 |
| 2018 | 2362 |
| 2019 | 2506 |
| 2020 | 2581 |
| 2021 | 2583 |
| 2022 | 2669 |
| 2023 | 2827 |
| Now | 2991 |
ZiPS appreciated Freeman pretty rapidly, however his profession hit projection stayed comparatively steady after a number of years, hovering someplace within the 2,400–2,500 vary. The previous few years have modified that. His runway has turn out to be longer and longer, with the chance more and more coming from a severe harm moderately than decline. Now, he’ll decline, however like flying a hold glider, the upper you begin, the longer earlier than you hit the bottom.
Right here’s the up to date profession projection for Freeman via Sunday’s video games:
ZiPS Profession Projection – Freddie Freeman
| Yr | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | .301 | .385 | .512 | 574 | 110 | 173 | 39 | 2 | 26 | 95 | 73 | 106 | 13 | 142 | 0 | 4.7 |
| 2025 | .290 | .375 | .484 | 531 | 97 | 154 | 35 | 1 | 22 | 83 | 67 | 101 | 10 | 132 | 0 | 3.5 |
| 2026 | .281 | .366 | .461 | 484 | 84 | 136 | 31 | 1 | 18 | 71 | 60 | 95 | 8 | 124 | 0 | 2.6 |
| 2027 | .272 | .358 | .442 | 430 | 72 | 117 | 26 | 1 | 15 | 60 | 53 | 88 | 7 | 117 | -1 | 1.8 |
| 2028 | .261 | .345 | .412 | 376 | 59 | 98 | 22 | 1 | 11 | 49 | 45 | 81 | 5 | 106 | -1 | 0.9 |
| 2029 | .252 | .337 | .399 | 321 | 48 | 81 | 18 | 1 | 9 | 39 | 37 | 73 | 4 | 100 | -2 | 0.5 |
| 2030 | .247 | .332 | .382 | 267 | 39 | 66 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 31 | 31 | 62 | 3 | 94 | -2 | 0.2 |
| 2031 | .242 | .325 | .363 | 215 | 30 | 52 | 11 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 50 | 2 | 88 | -2 | -0.1 |
This isn’t a very bullish outlook, with ZiPS projecting a reasonably regular decline (as it is best to at these ages). But it surely’s nonetheless sufficient to web him 877 hits, which, with the 16 extra projected in 2023, brings Freeman to 2,991. ZiPS really has a milestone algorithm I wrote some years in the past that reduces taking part in time much less as a participant nears a major milestone, so the projection system now has Freeman extra more likely to get to three,000 than to fall brief, at 53%. Along with his projected homer complete nearing 450 and his WAR more likely to high 70, Freeman is more and more turning into an excellent wager for Cooperstown.
Not many lively gamers are more likely to be part of Freeman at 3,000 hits, with ZiPS projecting, on common, only one.6 gamers apart from him reaching the mark. Listed here are the 23 lively gamers with not less than a 0.5% projected probability:
ZiPS Profession Projection – Hit Milestones
ZiPS nonetheless thinks that Altuve goes to expire of calendar, however his outlook has improved considerably since 2021. The 2 largest gainers this 12 months, in the meantime, have been Acuña Jr. and Bichette.
Whereas it’s nonetheless too quickly to be writing any speeches or getting ready any celebrations, Cabrera would possibly need to take into account leaving the lights on on the 3,000 Hit Membership for Freeman.
