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Collegiate Nook: Condon Vs. Caglianone

TizasporBy No Comments7 Mins Read

With the reported promotion of Paul Skenes to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday afternoon, it’s truthful to marvel who might be primed to comply with the fireballer because the No. 1 general choice within the MLB Draft this July. Final yr’s school trio on the high of the draft class was a traditionally robust group, led by Skenes and adopted by outfielders Dylan Crews and Wyatt Langford. This summer time is poised to have an equally-as-lethal high three, headlined by Georgia’s Charlie Condon and Florida’s Jac Caglianone, who’re primed for an all-time nice Golden Spikes race down the stretch. Arkansas southpaw Hagen Smith is correct there with them as this yr’s high collegiate arm, however what Condon and Caglianone are doing is really historic and each gamers needs to be positioned firmly on the high of your first-year participant draft boards. However who ought to go first general and who ought to you will have at No. 1 in your FYPD?

It’s extremely doubtless that Condon and Caglianone go 1-2, no matter order, within the 2024 MLB Draft. Maybe Smith can sneak into that grouping and push one to 3rd general, however reportedly the Oakland Athletics aren’t very bullish on their possibilities of snagging Caglianone at No. 4. At current, Condon is positioned at No. 1 on MLB Pipeline’s huge board, adopted by Oregon State’s Travis Bazzana and Caglianone at No. 2 and No. 3, respectively.

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Arriving on campus as a walk-on, Condon redshirted in 2021 after which burst onto the scene in an enormous method as a redshirt freshman final season: .386/.484/.800, 25 HR, 67 RBI, 61 R, 17.7 Ok%, 13.0 BB%. In 2024, he has adopted that up with arguably probably the most spectacular offensive marketing campaign in current reminiscence. In 47 video games this yr, Condon is hitting .459/.568/1.105 with 33 dwelling runs, 16 doubles, 69 RBI, 70 runs, a 14.8 Ok% and 17.4 BB%. He has 50 extra-base hits in 47 video games whereas batting .459. That’s unprecedented. And it’s translated into the Bulldogs being ranked among the many top-15 groups within the nation.

In case you’re on the lookout for any type of draw back to Condon, you’ll be hard-pressed to take action because it pertains to the dynasty fantasy baseball realm. He’s a cultured bat. He’s selective. He’s strolling greater than he’s putting out this yr. His pitch recognition is above common for his age. Nevertheless, he slugged simply .348 throughout 50 Cape Cod League plate appearances, ending with a .261 common and two extra-base hits in 11 video games. And defensively, he has no actual dwelling regardless of primarily sticking at third base this season. He has additionally seen time at first base and within the nook outfield however is extra of a fringy defender at every spot. In case you’re on the lookout for a comp, look to Kris Bryant again in 2013. Their swings and hundreds are nothing alike, however Condon is a cultured school bat exhibiting unappareled energy in his draft yr with the flexibility to play all 4 nook positions, albeit none at an elite degree — identical to Bryant. Though he has by no means been a stellar defender, Bryant entered the draft as a top-two general choice, with positional versatility and hit 31 dwelling runs in 2013, which on the time signified a BBCOR file. To be truthful, Condon has made substantial strides defensively this yr and could possibly stick at third long-term, however so did Bryant at the start of his profession.

Shifting to Caglianone, the two-way star has additionally produced an all-time nice offensive season whereas splitting his time between the mound and batter’s field. He touches triple digits from the left facet and has a possible plus breaking ball and changeup. It’s at all times been the identical story for Cags on the hill: elite stuff, excessive strikeout charges, low BAA, excessive stroll numbers. That has held true this season: 5-1, 53 1/3 IP, 4.39 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, .223 BAA, 10.6 Ok/9 and 6.2 BB/9. So, whereas he’s a gorgeous prospect as a two-way expertise and can doubtless be drafted as such, at the moment’s dialogue revolves largely round his work on the plate.

Caglianone set the BBCOR dwelling run file with 33 dwelling runs final season, which Condon has promptly tied and can undoubtedly break by season’s finish. Together with that energy output Caglianone slashed .323/.389/.738 with a 18.2 Ok% and 5.3 BB% whereas beginning all 71 video games. He not solely set Florida’s single-season dwelling run file, but additionally drove in additional runs (90) than any participant in class historical past.

All of that’s noteworthy for a possible high draft choice, however right here’s what makes the dialog really fascinating: Caglianone has advanced much more from 2023-24 than Condon has. His energy is stronger than ever, however he’s pairing that with an enhanced strategy on the plate that offers him an unprecedented power-contact mixture at his disposal. Earlier this season, Caglianone tied the NCAA file by homering in nine-straight video games from April 6-19. He adopted that with an equally as spectacular feat by going 66-consecutive plate appearances with out a strikeout from April 7-27. At current, Caglianone ranks second nationally with 27 dwelling runs behind Condon whereas being positioned as one of many 40-most-difficult hitters to strikeout within the nation with 11.0 at bats per strikeout.

Caglianone has utterly remodeled himself right into a plus-plus hit device participant this season, which is why there’s a reputable dialog on this debate. His 17-to-30 strikeout-to-walk ratio has fueled a miniscule 7.6% strikeout charge, which is almost half that of Condon (14.8%). With two strikes, he widens to take up practically all the size of the batter’s field whereas minimizing his stride. All of the whereas, Caglianone has slashed .412/.511/.856 with 56 runs and 54 RBI. As a bonus, he’s an elite defender at first base able to competing for Gold Gloves on the subsequent degree.

With Caglianone’s work on each side of the baseball, he ought to have the sting to win the 2024 Golden Spikes Award. However the high choose within the 2024 MLB Draft is much more cloudy, with the Cleveland Guardians having rights to the primary participant on the board. The one method they will go flawed is by passing on each gamers for Bazzana, who’s a top-five expertise however doesn’t possess the identical ceiling or profile as a middle-of-the-order bat within the MLB as Condon and Caglianone. Given the enhancements Caglianone has made along with his strikeout and call charges in lower than one calendar yr, in addition to his two-way standing (he was a projected first rounder as a pitcher out of highschool earlier than Tommy John surgical procedure), the Gators standout needs to be the choose for Cleveland in July. Personally, I feel it ought to go Caglianone-Condon-Smith-Chase Burns-Bazzana with the top-four alternatives if primarily based solely on expertise and big-league affect (and, in impact, fantasy affect).

Both method, I wouldn’t be stunned if each Condon and Caglianone are hitting within the coronary heart of a Main League batting order by August 2025. We’ve already seen Nolan Schanuel, Wyatt Langford, and Skenes obtain the decision in 2024. It’s clear Condon and Caglianone are generational bats able to making that very same degree of rapid big-league affect. I might not go on both participant at No. 2, not even for Smith.

That’s all for this week, Razzball fam! As at all times, I’m joyful to take this dialog into the feedback part or on Twitter, the place you will discover me @WorldOfHobbs.

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