Exploring a Second Alex Verdugo Commerce

It’s powerful to defend some of the unpopular trades of the previous 10 years, however when Mookie Betts received traded to the Dodgers in 2020, some folks tried. One of the crucial generally grasped straws concerned the centerpiece of the deal, Alex Verdugo. No person value listening to stated Verdugo was nearly as good as Betts, who was at that time an MVP, the most effective participant on the most effective group of the 2010s, and on a bullet practice to Cooperstown. However Verdugo was a superb participant, of the same kind to Betts. He’s additionally three and a half years youthful than Betts, and on the time of the commerce had 5 seasons of group management left to Betts’ one.

And if you happen to squint arduous sufficient, you may see it. Verdugo, at his finest, has the identical strengths as Betts: hitting for contact, protection in proper subject, doubles energy. The place the comparability falls aside is that Verdugo is merely good at these issues, and a median common total, whereas Betts is among the many finest within the recreation at protection and phone hitting. And whereas Verdugo is sweet for a few dozen house runs a 12 months, Betts averages 32 house runs and 22 stolen bases per 162 video games performed. Snatch is a fairly good gangster film, however anybody who tells you it’s nearly as good as The Godfather is making an attempt to get one over on you.

Now, Verdugo does have one thing extra concrete in frequent with Betts: He’s one 12 months from free company, and the Crimson Sox are purchasing him.

There are many groups with a necessity for a dependable proper fielder, and Verdugo, by advantage of enjoying his total profession for the Dodgers and Crimson Sox, is certainly a reputation. With greater than 2,500 main league plate appearances below his belt, he in all probability is what he’s as a participant by this level, however he’s additionally solely 27 (he turns 28 subsequent Could). That makes him positively youthful as one-year leases go, and eliminates among the draw back threat related to different potential alternate options.

Which brings up an essential challenge: If the Crimson Sox need to commerce Verdugo, they need to suppose he’s extra helpful than different nook outfielders who can be found in free company. We will see.

This isn’t an incredible free agent class for nook outfielders. There’s clearly no Aaron Choose available on the market this 12 months. Even when there have been, any group that severely pursued a participant like Choose can be dissatisfied to need to accept giving up a prospect to amass Verdugo. MLB Commerce Rumors initiatives that Verdugo will make $9.2 million in arbitration this offseason; let’s go together with that quantity. What would a group be keen to commerce as a way to purchase a median proper fielder making $9.2 million?

Possibly lower than you’d suppose.

Earlier than the beginning of free company, the Brewers have been ready to say no Mark Canha’s $11.5 million group possibility. The Tigers swooped in and picked Canha up for the low price of a 25-year-old minor league pitcher who would possibly finally flip into an honest center reliever.

On stability, I feel Verdugo is a greater participant than Canha at this cut-off date. He’s a greater defender, and whereas Canha was the higher offensive participant final 12 months, Verdugo has been a greater hitter in recent times, each for common and energy. He’s additionally seven years youthful and (if the projection comes good) is because of make a pair million {dollars} much less. Canha, however, walks extra and will get on base by getting hit by pitches. He additionally didn’t display the troubling platoon cut up that dogged Verdugo final 12 months.

Right here’s how Verdugo stacks up towards Canha, in addition to six nook outfielders listed on this 12 months’s High 50 Free Agent rankings. The listed stats are from 2023, and the listed age is for 2024:

These gamers (in addition to Whit Merrifield, Joc Pederson, and some others whom I left off this chart) are all very totally different, so a group that’s taken with paying round $10 million for a median nook outfielder is likely to be taken with Verdugo, however not Duvall, as an illustration. However even in order for you a superb defensive proper fielder who would possibly must be protected towards left-handed pitching for about $10 million, Heyward is on the market. How a lot would a GM be keen to half with, by way of prospects, as a way to get the youthful Verdugo? In all probability greater than the Brewers received for Canha, however in all probability lower than you’d suppose based mostly on title recognition.

Then, the Crimson Sox must exit and discover a alternative. That may price cash and/or commerce capital. Buying and selling Verdugo earlier than he leaves in free company seems like a sensible factor to do, nevertheless it would possibly create extra issues than it solves.

There are three situations wherein it will make sense to pursue buying and selling Verdugo. The primary is a problem commerce: Verdugo for the same participant (fairly good however not nice, would possibly profit from a change of surroundings) at a distinct place. A pitcher, maybe, or perhaps a center infielder. These trades aren’t as frequent as I’d like, nevertheless it’s a chance. There’s some scuttlebutt round a possible Verdugo-for-Gleyber Torres swap, which might match this mannequin.

Second: Verdugo seems to be value greater than I’m projecting. that record of potential free agent outfielders, one factor most of them have in frequent is that they’ve a obtrusive weak spot that will require some sort of crutch. Both a platoon associate, or common baserunning or defensive assist. Even with Verdugo’s platoon splits, I’d nonetheless be snug working him on the market each day, in nearly each state of affairs. I’d say the identical for Gurriel and perhaps Duvall, however after that it will get a little bit dicey.

Possibly a possible commerce associate values solely needing to spend one roster spot on proper subject, sufficient in order that they’re keen to ship over a greater prospect in return. Or perhaps a group with a determined want for nook outfield assist finally ends up with out a chair when the music stops, and the Crimson Sox immediately discover some leverage.

The third state of affairs: Boston offers up on 2024 and decides that Verdugo isn’t within the group’s long-term plans. In that case, commerce him for no matter you may get, and hand proper subject over to whichever reclamation venture or non-roster invite looks like heading northeast. (Maybe Joey Gallo would possibly wish to play his house video games flanked by the Pesky Pole and the Inexperienced Monster.) This wouldn’t ship an incredible message to followers who already anticipate greater than the Crimson Sox have delivered over the previous 5 years. However a lot of the harm has already been performed on that entrance; barring a hell of a primary offseason from Craig Breslow, the Sox will head into 2024 because the possible fifth-place finisher within the AL East.

All of which is a little bit of a disappointing observe to finish on, I notice. However what the Crimson Sox do with Verdugo — if something — will likely be instructive as to the course Breslow intends to take the group.