The Blue Jays are 1.5 video games behind the Rangers for the final AL wild card berth, so it stays fairly attainable that Toronto might nonetheless find yourself as a part of the postseason bracket. Nevertheless, merely squeaking into the playoffs wasn’t in any respect what the Jays envisioned when spending roughly $215MM (a membership document) in payroll and surpassing the luxurious tax threshold for the primary time, because the crew totally anticipated to be contending for a World Sequence title.
Alek Manoah’s excessive struggles and an absence of bench depth have contributed to the Jays’ underwhelming season, but the largest wrongdoer has been a really up-and-down offense. Although the Blue Jays are literally among the many league’s finest in getting hits and getting on base, they rank center of the pack in runs as a consequence of an incapacity to persistently drive in runners in scoring place. Past this particular flaw, the Jays have additionally gotten disappointing years on the plate from a number of regulars, and whereas Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has nonetheless been above common, his oddity of a season has been fairly symbolic of Toronto’s 2023 marketing campaign as a complete.
“Above common” manufacturing and a 112 wRC+ is a superbly respectable 12 months for many gamers, but for Guerrero, it stands out as a crimson flag. When that good (.264/.337/.432 with 20 homers over 579 plate appearances) however unspectacular offense is paired with a subpar defensive season, Guerrero has solely 0.4 fWAR — amongst all certified gamers in baseball, solely 16 gamers have a decrease fWAR than Guerrero’s modest complete.
It’s an eye-opening statistic, since for the entire cash the Blue Jays have invested in constructing their roster, the crew’s plans have been constructed across the assumption of wonderful manufacturing from homegrown stars Guerrero and Bo Bichette. Whereas Bichette has largely lived as much as that billing and has been Toronto’s finest participant this season, Guerrero all of the sudden changing into barely a replacement-level participant has been an enormous setback for the Jays.
And but, a glimpse at Guerrero’s Statcast web page would make one assume that he’s once more an MVP candidate. Guerrero ranks in at the least the 89th percentile in such key classes as strikeout price, laborious contact, barrels, anticipated batting common, anticipated on-base share, anticipated slugging share, exit velocity, and xwOBA. In actual fact, that latter statistic hints that Guerrero’s relative struggles this season have been as a consequence of horrid luck. No certified participant in baseball has a bigger hole between their xwOBA and wOBA than Guerrero, whose elite .379 xwOBA has resulted in a way more modest .332 wOBA.
The ocean of crimson on Guerrero’s Statcast web page seemingly signifies {that a} turn-around is imminent or virtually inevitable, and but because the calendar has now reached September, the primary baseman has nonetheless but to get sizzling for any prolonged time period. Guerrero’s finest manufacturing got here early within the season with an .885 OPS over 127 PA in March and April, however he has hit solely .245/.318/.397 over 434 PA since Might 5.
Hailed as a future cornerstone celebrity and the sport’s finest prospect throughout his time in Toronto’s farm system, Guerrero appeared properly on his solution to residing as much as the hype together with his sensational 2021 marketing campaign. Guerrero hit .311/.401/.601 with 48 homers over 698 plate appearances, and certain would’ve received AL MVP honors if it hadn’t been for Shohei Ohtani’s legendary two-way efficiency.
Somewhat than construct on that massive season, Guerrero took a relative step backwards in 2022, hitting .274/.339/.480 with 32 homers over 706 PA. Whereas not precisely a trigger for concern contemplating {that a} 132+ wRC remains to be excellent, Guerrero’s 2022 numbers revealed some points which have grow to be bigger points in 2023. For one, Guerrero’s chase charges and chase contact charges have been properly under common in 2022-23, as pitchers have discovered that Guerrero is liable to swinging at pitches exterior the zone with less-than-stellar outcomes.
Whereas Guerrero doesn’t strike out a lot, his tendency to chase has led to loads of his hard-hit balls staying on the bottom. Guerrero has a 47.5% grounder price this season, and a good 50% grounder price because the begin of the 2022 season — the eighth-highest amongst certified hitters in that span. Between these grounders, Guerrero’s below-average pace, and a .285 BABIP in 2022-23, it maybe isn’t stunning that Guerrero has hit into 46 double performs since Opening Day 2022, tied for essentially the most of any participant within the league.
Guerrero has all the time had fairly greater groundball charges over his 5 MLB seasons, but in 2021, his career-best 36.5% fly ball price resulted in that massive 48-homer 12 months. He has solely a 31.9% fly ball price within the two seasons since, with somewhat a stark dropoff in general energy. The primary baseman’s Remoted Energy metric has gone from .290 in 2021 to .205 final season to .169 this season.
As a lot as 2021 appeared like the primary style of what Guerrero was “purported to be” as a budding celebrity, it additionally stands out as an outlier inside Guerrero’s 5 Main League seasons. It is usually price noting that the 2021 season was additionally an outlier for the Blue Jays generally, as COVID-related border restrictions stored the crew from truly taking part in in Toronto till the top of July. Guerrero nonetheless had a .935 OPS in 152 PA at Rogers Centre in 2021, although even that spectacular complete paled compared to his numbers on the Blue Jays’ different two house ballparks that season — a 1.418 OPS in 96 PA on the Jays’ spring complicated in Dunedin, or his 1.180 OPS in 98 PA at Buffalo’s Sahlen Subject.
Because the pandemic additionally pressured the Jays to play in Buffalo through the 60-game 2020 season, Guerrero has solely performed 241 video games at his precise house ballpark in his profession, and there’s proof that Guerrero has but to completely get comfy at Rogers Centre. Guerrero has hit .258/.327/.448 over 1024 profession PA in Toronto, however his house/highway splits have been unusually drastic this season. Guerrero has solely a .691 OPS at Rogers Centre in 2023, as in comparison with a way more respectable .837 OPS in highway video games.
The altered dimensions and wall sizes at Rogers Centre this season appears to have had some influence on general offense, as Statcast’s Park Issue calculations rank Toronto as a barely below-average hitting atmosphere this season after years of being seen as a park that usually favors hitters. In fact, there are some on-field elements that go into this calculation, because the decreased offense may need much less to do with the ballpark renovations than how the Jays have had a powerful protection and good pitching employees this season, or their very own lineup’s lack of manufacturing. And, since a number of different Blue Jays batters are hitting fairly properly at Rogers Centre, it’s laborious to pinpoint why Guerrero particularly is struggling a lot in his house ballpark.
Past offense, Guerrero additionally hasn’t been serving to his trigger on protection. Public defensive metrics (-8 Defensive Runs Saved, -0.3 UZR/150, -14 Outs Above Common) are very down on his glovework, which represents a step again after Guerrero had seemingly been bettering as a primary baseman in previous seasons. The general public metrics have all the time been considerably cut up on Guerrero’s protection, but DRS gave him plus grades in each 2021 and 2022, whereas he had a +2.5 UZR/150 in 2021.
Given that he’s near competing his fifth MLB season, it’s nonetheless virtually a shock to keep in mind that Guerrero received’t flip 25 years outdated till March, and his prime years may properly nonetheless be forward of him. In fact, that is small comfort to a crew constructed to win proper now, and Guerrero’s 2023 season additionally creates some new questions on his standing as a long-term constructing block. He’s arbitration-controlled for 2 extra seasons and shall be due a elevate on his $14.5MM wage in 2023, together with his early-career success and Tremendous Two standing combining to offer the primary baseman some hefty paydays all through his arb years.
The query of whether or not the Blue Jays will signal Guerrero and/or Bichette (or neither) to long-term contract extensions has been a lingering query for years, but since Bichette can be managed by means of 2025, it isn’t essentially a query the Jays should face simply but. Nevertheless, Guerrero’s 2023 efficiency is much from the perfect for a franchise participant, and as that vast 2021 season will get additional within the rearview mirror, the Blue Jays may nonetheless not know precisely what they’ve in Guerrero.
A giant September would go a great distance in the direction of salvaging this season from a private perspective and a crew perspective if Guerrero can lastly escape and carry the Jays into the playoffs. However, after what has principally been a four-month stoop, time is working out for Guerrero to regulate and switch his excellent superior metrics into higher real-world outcomes.
