Tonight is an enormous night time for Zach Eflin. When he takes the mound, he’ll be making his nineteenth begin, and when he earns his second out of the night, he’ll have retired his 318th batter, good for 106 innings on the yr. These aren’t data or good spherical numbers, however they’re significant for this explicit pitcher; he hasn’t surpassed these totals since 2019, his first and solely certified season. The Rays took a bet on the righty this winter (by their very own requirements, not less than), signing the oft-injured starter to the most important free-agent deal in franchise historical past. When Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs every went down with season-ending accidents, the stakes for Eflin grew larger. However with every subsequent begin he makes, his contract seems to be much less like a bet and extra like freeway theft. When Eflin data his second out tonight, he’ll have given the Rays greater than he gave the Phillies in a single season because the pre-pandemic days.
Eflin almost reached 106 innings his final trip, however the fates weren’t on his aspect. An hour-long rain delay messed together with his preparation proper earlier than first pitch, and the hapless Royals selected that specific day to attain 5 unanswered runs within the first two innings of play. Eflin was pulled shortly thereafter, and he must wait one other 5 days to have a good time his achievement. Barring catastrophe, he’ll get there earlier than 7:00 PM ET this night, and all issues thought-about, the timing really works out fairly effectively. His 106th inning will coincide together with his nineteenth begin, and his outing at present will mark the most recent date on the calendar that he’s began a sport since 2020.
What makes tonight all of the extra particular is the potential for what’s to come back. Eflin is on tempo to make 30 begins and throw about 170 innings, each of which might be new profession highs. When he certified for the ERA title in 2019, he did so by the pores and skin of his enamel, tossing 163.1 frames. He briefly misplaced his rotation spot after a disastrous efficiency that July (certainly, this season marks the primary profitable July of his profession), and if the Phillies had optioned him to Triple-A as a substitute of placing him within the bullpen, he’d have fallen 13 outs in need of qualification. Thus, he’s seeking to end the season as a totally certified beginning pitcher for the very first time.
When Eflin was a teen, FanGraphs prospect gurus praised his potential as a mid-rotation innings eater. So what went mistaken? Accidents, as is commonly the case. Eflin’s 6-foot-6 body has failed him sooner or later in each season of his large league profession. He’s been on the injured checklist 9 separate occasions since his debut in 2016 — ten in the event you depend the COVID IL. The shortened 2020 season was the one yr he prevented an IL stint, and even then, he handled again spasms throughout “summer time camp,” pushing again his first begin and limiting his pitch depend in his first few outings. He handled again tightness earlier this yr too – it’s turn into a continual problem at this level – however this time round, he returned after the minimal 15 days and shortly acquired again on monitor. He’s appeared sharp and wholesome ever since.
Eflin has been the Rays’ most respected pitcher this yr, and his 2.6 WAR ranks eighth within the American League. A strong begin tonight might bump him as much as fifth place; a terrific begin might get him all the way in which to 3rd. Decimal factors of WAR are about as significant as decimal factors in your financial institution stability, however the additional Eflin creeps up the leaderboards, the extra consideration he’s sure to get. And as he receives extra recognition for his breakout efficiency, it’s price remembering the pitcher he was earlier than this season.
It will be simple to presume the Rays labored their magic to unlock one thing new from Eflin, however he has lengthy been higher than most individuals assume. He took an enormous step ahead in 2020, however the shortened season introduced his breakout to an early finish. Accidents had the identical impact in 2021 and ’22. On prime of that, the dreadful Phillies protection at all times did him additional disservice. His ERA was noticeably larger than each estimator in every year from 2020 to ’22. In different phrases, Eflin didn’t want any magic. He solely wanted to remain wholesome for his $40 million deal to appear to be a discount.
Right here’s one thing which may shock. Eflin has thrown 345.2 innings because the begin of the 2020 season; 107 different pitchers have thrown not less than 300 innings in that point. Amongst that group, Eflin ranks twenty first in WAR per innings pitched, and he’s basically in a seven-way tie with Luis Castillo, Framber Valdez, Logan Webb, Freddy Peralta, Alex Cobb, and Gerrit Cole. I’ll offer you a second to learn these names once more. It goes with out saying that sturdiness is an important talent – there’s a purpose WAR is a counting stat and never a charge stat – however the level is that Eflin by no means wanted to make any dramatic modifications to turn into a frontline starter. He simply wanted to remain on the sphere.
Certainly, so long as he’s wholesome, pitching deep into video games isn’t an issue for Eflin. He throws a ton of strikes however doesn’t rack up strikeouts, thereby holding his pitch counts low. As well as, he has a few methods up his sleeve that he can whip out when he wants a whiff to flee a jam. He ranks within the prime third of pitchers in innings per begin since 2020, and he rises into the highest quarter in the event you take away a few of his injury-affected outings.
Eflin struggled mightily in his ultimate begin of 2021 earlier than hitting the injured checklist, and he slogged his manner by way of three painful outings in 2022. Eradicating these 4 video games from his ledger, he made 37 different begins over his final three seasons with the Phillies, posting a 3.87 ERA, 3.41 FIP, and three.57 xFIP and averaging 5.77 innings per begin. This yr, compared, he has a 3.59 ERA, a 3.13 FIP, and three.17 xFIP. These numbers aren’t so totally different. Plus, it’s price remembering that he moved to a pitcher-friendly dwelling stadium and is pitching with a stronger infield protection behind him. All this to say, Eflin isn’t a brand-new pitcher. Issues are simply going his manner for the primary time in his profession.
Now, this isn’t to say Eflin hasn’t improved; he actually has! His ERA, FIP, xFIP, xERA, and SIERA are all profession lows. He’s permitting extra laborious contact, however he’s additionally inducing extra groundballs. His stroll charge, which has at all times been wonderful, is the bottom it’s ever been. On prime of that, he’s incomes swings and misses at the most effective charge of his profession. That isn’t saying a lot for a man whose whiff charge lives within the blue on Baseball Savant, however no pitcher goes to complain about additional swinging strikes.
Even higher, Eflin is posting the most effective numbers of his profession in opposition to left-handed hitters. He ditched his four-seam fastball in opposition to righties a couple of years again, and now he’s executed the identical in opposition to lefties. He’s spreading the love between his different pitches as a substitute, and the outcomes have been wonderful. His curveball, specifically, has been nasty; opposite-handed hitters have a .169 wOBA and a 34.1% whiff charge in opposition to the curve, which they’re seeing over 30% of the time.
In the end, the important thing for Eflin has been specializing in what he already does effectively. He’s throwing his finest pitches extra usually, and he’s targeted on throwing strikes. Most significantly, he’s holding the ball low within the zone. Check out the warmth maps for his 4 most-used pitches, and also you’ll see a complete lack of shade across the prime of every picture:
Eflin has excelled at holding the ball low since he turned a main sinker-baller in 2020, however this yr he’s reached one other stage. Out of 124 pitchers with not less than 1,000 pitches this season, solely two (Marcus Stroman and Carlos Carrasco) have thrown a decrease share of their strikes within the higher third of the zone. Moreover, neither Stroman nor Carrasco throws almost as many strikes as Eflin. They each rank among the many backside 20% in zone charge, and Eflin ranks within the prime 15%. Of the 51 starters who’ve thrown not less than 50% of their pitches within the zone, none avoids the higher third like Eflin. Partly, this displays the truth that he’s throwing fewer four-seam fastballs, however it additionally demonstrates refined management of his cutter, which has turn into a key weapon in his arsenal.
Eflin’s main purpose for holding the ball low is obvious: He desires to induce groundballs and known as strikes, each of which come extra ceaselessly on pitches additional down within the zone. However there’s a secondary profit, too. Opposing hitters are virtually by no means anticipating a pitch above their waist, and Eflin dominates when he surprises them up within the zone. He has held opponents to a .240 wOBA and .260 xwOBA on pitches within the higher half, and his strikeout charge within the higher third is nearly double his strikeout charge over the remainder of the plate.
All these enhancements have helped Eflin put collectively the most effective efficiency of his profession, however on the finish of the day, none of it might make a distinction if he couldn’t keep on the sphere. He isn’t breaking out due to a brand new pitch or a brand new method. He’s breaking out as a result of he’s lastly wholesome, and he’s lastly pitching sufficient for the baseball world to take notice.
