A bit of peek behind the scenes, I see my job right here (for 4 years now) as highlighting inconsistencies in pre-season draft worth for you, our devoted readers. I attempt my greatest to make use of my baseball data to level this out. And in my expertise, it’s at all times attention-grabbing how sure gamers garner plenty of helium based mostly on how their season ended or plenty of hopium (EWB’s phrase) based mostly on wishful considering. However there are at all times different guys—who share comparable traits thoughts you—that may warrant a slight low cost as a consequence of how the season ended however nowhere close to the diploma to which they’re “forgotten.”
This yr Joe Musgrove matches that narrative… and he shouldn’t. Joe Musgrove is an ace, full cease. Final yr was final yr; let’s depart it there. It began off on the flawed foot (zing!) when Musgrove injured his toe by dropping a cowbell on it throughout a exercise. Ouch! That delayed his season. He injured it once more on the sequence in Mexico with a turf burn (what’s that stuff fabricated from down there?) and after getting again on the mound he pitched via elbow bursitis earlier than being shut down with shoulder irritation. Late-season interviews revealed that these may need been unwanted effects of compromised mechanics as a consequence of his toe damage.
Regardless of all of that, Joe Musgrove nonetheless completed the season with a 10-3 report, 3.05 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 97 Ks via 97.1 IP. That was on pure effort. Earlier than final yr, Musgrove had thrown 181 innings in back-to-back years for the Padres. And because the Padres in the end determined to fold up the chairs final season, Musgrove has had additional time to recuperate after not pitching in video games throughout August and September. This allowed him to totally recuperate and start common offseason exercises with no setback. And as lately as this week, Mike Shildt reported that he’s 100% good to go for spring coaching with no limitations.
Right here is Joe Musgrove’s 3-year observe report in case you want extra convincing:
| W | L | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | Okay/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-2023 | 31 | 19 | 3.05 | 1.09 | 7.6 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 9.5 |
Since becoming a member of the Padres Joe Musgrove has a 60% win fee and a 3-year ERA of three.05 and 1.09 WHIP with a Okay-rate above 9. Is that good? The reply after all is a convincing sure. Is he that a lot completely different than Logan Gilbert?
| W | L | ERA | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | Okay/9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-2023 | 26 | 13 | 3.47 | 1.13 | 8.1 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 8.7 |
And that’s simply the final 2 years of Gilbert after his welcome-to-the-bigs season. If you wish to argue age and some innings is what separates them, then superb. However is that value a 3-round premium? Most likely not. I don’t learn about you, however I like the value for comparable manufacturing later coming from Joe Musgrove (who remains to be solely 31). He’ll probably throw fewer innings than Gilbert season-long however I’d quite use that earlier decide on higher-Okay upside or a 5-tool batter.
One factor value noting is that the Padres will look just a little completely different this yr. Juan Soto has since left through commerce, leaving a vacuum within the outfield to be crammed by Jose Azocar (in the meanwhile). Whereas Azocar can’t replicate Soto’s bat (now or at any level sooner or later), he represents a considerable enchancment in protection with above-average protection and a 70-grade cannon ripe for defensive assists. So that might take the type of some doubles restricted to singles, and a few singles turning into outs. Admittedly, this doesn’t at all times characterize a big pattern of “alternative” but it surely’s greater than nothing.
Proper now within the ADP panorama, Joe Musgrove is being taken within the decide 104 vary. For these sorts of ratios, I see that as a reduction based mostly on the misplaced season during which he nonetheless put up 97 innings which can be in keeping with profession averages. Talking of which, let’s spotlight {that a} bit extra. His 3-year ERA on the Padres is 3.05 and his 3-year WHIP is 1.09. To overly convey this all the way down to brevity; he’s been actually good and actually constant. In that vary, I’ll fortunately take Musgrove. And if you happen to want a refresher on what makes Musgrove “good,” right here is my breakdown on him from a few years in the past. Comfortable drafting.
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